2014 MLB Breakout Candidates
The baseball season is one week in and we're already off to an awesome start. It's very obvious that replay is going to play a huge role, but I have personally seen at least one game where the result would have been different without replay correcting the call, so technically the wrong team would have won. It's going to be very fun watching the evolution of the game. With replay being added, baseball feels like it is entering a new era, and in many ways it really is. We are still working our way back from the steroid era, and thanks to the Biogenesis scandal last season, and the unbelievable sociopathic ego's of the likes of Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez, it felt like we brought right back. But real baseball fans know, and have known, that there is an all new crop of young guys in the majors ready to breakout. There are a new crop of stars coming, some you have heard of, and some maybe not. I decided (with an awesome suggestion from a friend) to write up my breakout stars for the 2014 season. Some of the guys aren't exactly bold predictions, but I think everyone on this list will make an impact this season, and will be a major star in the next few. There are future Cy Young winners, MVP candidates, and for those you committed to fantasy baseball, there are some guys on this list I think could help you win a championship. So learn these names now, and check your waiver wire. As always, please leave any comments, debate starters, or insults in the comment sections. Thanks for the read, and please add me on Twitter, @UTIOSports. Thanks again!
Chris Archer, SP - Tampa Bay Rays
2014 Predictions: 160K 15W 3.45ERA 1.20WHIP
Chris Archer was actually drafted by the Indians and traded to the Cubs in a trade for Mark Derosa. I know the Indians traded a good pitcher for an old rental utility guy? Hard to believe. He was traded to the Rays in 2011 in the Matt Garza trade, and started 23 games for Tampa last season. If you haven't figured it out by now, the Rays absolutely farm great pitching. It's almost unbelievable, they seem to always trade a guy at the perfect time and always have two or three more guys waiting. Chris Archer is the next stud, and I think future ace for this staff. His K/9 rate was down slightly in his rookie campaign, but he still sat down 101, and posted a WHIP of 1.12. With Jeremy Hellickson out until May, and Matt Moore set to go to the DL, Archer is going to have a chance at solidifying himself in the Rays rotation. He will climb the ladder and could be the #2 guy by the end of the season, and maybe the ace of staff with David Price likely on his way out.
2014 Predictions: 150 K 11W 3.50ERA 1.25WHIP
Yordano Ventura signed at age 18 back in 2008 with the Kansas City Royals. He is from the Dominican and owns the fastest arm we've seen since Aroldis Chapman. Ventura is a strikeout machine, with a 9.9 K/9 rate in the minors last season, good enough for third best. Being able to throw over 100 MPH whenever you feel like it sure can help. He does give up hits, and walks more than desired, but those numbers started to improve last season. As the season progresses he will likely use the fastball more to his advantage, and should be able to turn some of those walks into pop outs, and maybe some more K's. The Royals have been the darling pick of baseball writers for the past 4 seasons or so, but this year might just be the year. No, really. Well, ok who knows. I have given up on calling for breakouts from Hosmer and Moustakas, even though I think it's possible. One breakout I am very confident in is Yordana Ventura. My best comparison for him is the previously mentioned Chris Archer. I think he will have some bumps along the way, but will have a very good season on his way to taking command of the Royals rotation. Ventura and Archer faced each other on April 8, and both of them were absolutely dealing. Ventura sat down with a no-decision, but threw 6 shutout innings, 2 hits, and 6 K's. These two are some of the best young arms in the game.
2014 Predictions: 140K 14W 3.10ERA 1.15WHIP
Andrew Cashner was drafted four times, twice by the Cubs before signing with them in 2008. He was traded to the Padres in the trade that sent former Red Sox prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs. He is now the #1 arm in San Diego's staff, and some fans in Wrigleyville are starting to wonder if they got the wrong end of the deal. At 6'6" he is a beast on the mound, with a crazy consistent delivery. Making it very tough to pick up offspeed pitches, and a fastball that just sneaks up on batters. He is a ground ball pitcher that gets to pitch in Petco Park, the most pitcher friendly in the game. Which may part of the reason he averages less than a home run per nine innings. He isn't a strikeout pitcher, but when he's on he could easily hit double digit K's in a game. I am really high on Cashner this season, and a lot of scouts and teams have been high on him for a long time. At 27, Cashner is on the verge of a major breakout and could possibly surpass the lofty numbers I've predicted. The only thing better than his stuff is that beard.
2014 Predictions: 24 HR - 85 RBI - .295/.390/.540
George Springer was drafted by the Twins deep in the 40's in 2008, and was a first round pick of the Astros in 2011. If you haven't heard his name before, remember it, this kid is going to be a star. I'm shocked Springer didn't make the big club coming out of spring, but he is going to get called up soon, very soon. Houston will likely have to waive someone like Alex Presley to make room for the high ranked prospect. I think Springer is going to come into the leagues on fire much like Yasiel Puig did last season, and Mike Trout before him. Except Springer is insanely better than Puig, and I'm not exaggerating. The dude has been absolutely raking in the minors, including 37 HR, 108 RBI, .303 AVG and an OPS over 1.100 in AA/AAA last season. Oh yeah, the guy also stole 45 bags. And all those errors that "come with Puig"? Springer has commited 3 errors so far. This season? Last season? No, Springer has commited 3 errors in his entire 4 year minor league career. I might not being giving Springer enough credit with the Puig comparsion, but I don't think I can call him the next Mike Trout. He's somewhere in between though, and that is going to make him a star. Get on the bandwagon now.
Yan Gomes is the first Brazilian born player in Major League history. He was drafted by the Blue Jays, and traded to the Indians for Esmil Rogers. The Indians experimented with their previous catcher, Carlos Santana, at third in the spring and have decided to keep him there. This move opens up the door for Yan Gomes to be behind the plate everyday. Yan can also play some infield, at first and third, so he should see 150 games this season. Gomes provides some power from the backstop, and could be a real threat to break 30 home runs this season. He doesn't walk enough, and strikes out too much, but those numbers should improve. Even if they don't, his 162 game average in his early career is 20 HR & 65 RBI with a slash line of .269/.321/.457, and that includes an awful 43 game start in Toronto.
2014 Predictions: 18 HR - 95 RBI - .295/.340/.480
Chris Owings was drafted by the Diamondbacks in 2009 straight out of high school. He moved his way up through the majors quickly, and after a a little time in the big leagues last year, he had a chance to earn a job at spring training this year. He beat out Didi Gregorius for the starting shortstop job in the desert, and the Dbacks have since moved the disappointed Didi to second base. That means not only does the job belong to Owings, he isn't going to have anyone knocking on his door. Owings showed some serious ability to hit for average, bring in runs, and have more than enough pop from short. He also stole 20 bags last year in AAA. He is a serious 20-20 candidate this season, and might even break .300. Shortstop has been a weak position as of late in the majors, and there hasn't been a lot of power from that spot either. Owings could be top 5 at short this season, and one of the best in the league soon.
2014 Predictions: 30 HR - 80 RBI - .280/.370/.520
Jose Abreu is a Cuban defector who signed with the White Sox last season. He will be starting everyday at first base, not long time south sider, Paul Konerko. Not a lot is known about Abreu, but he is 6'3" 255lbs, and swings a massive bat. He has an old school first baseman feel to him, in that he is going to drive in runs, work pitch counts, and if you leave one over the plate he will make you pay. Some of the other guys I am picking from breakouts have to make the transistion from prospect to everyday player, and that doesn't always go well. Abreu is starting out with the skills of an All-Star, and will not take anytime at all becoming one the top hitters in the AL. When I started writing this piece he was impressing at the plate, but hadn't caught up with one yet. Well, April 9 came and Abreu went yard twice. He's not going to be under the radar long, trust me. Chicago has quietly built a young, but very talented lineup. The White Sox are going to be heavy hitters and scoring runs again soon, and Jose Abreu is going to be a big part of that. For years to come.
2014 Predictions: 120K 12W 3.80ERA 1.25WHIP
Tyler Skaggs was drafted by the Angels, and traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the Dan Haren trade. He was then sent back to the Angels this offseason in the Mark Trumbo trade. The Angels also received Hector Santiago, who we will talk about soon. My hopes for Skaggs are purely based on potential, and I don't think you can give up so quick on a 22 year old with only 14 career starts. He is a 6'4" lefty with pretty nasty stuff. He was a strikeout machine in the minors, averaging 9.8 K/9. His WHIP only broke 1.25 once, and that was in his last stint in AAA. He lost some velocity last year, but his fastball is topping 92 once again. He pitched 8 scoreless innings, and struck out 5 in his first start of the season. He will give up some runs, and lose some games, but he is going to strikeout a lot of guys in the process. I think he has a chance to be really good soon.
2014 Predictions: 110K 10W 3.50ERA 1.25WHIP
Hector Santiago was drafted by the Chicago White Sox, and sent to the Angels with Tyler Skaggs, as part of a 3 team deal with the Diamondbacks. So, the Angels gave up Mark Trumbo, because they struggled to find a place for him to play everyday. In return, they got two young left handed arms to add to their rotation. I go back and forth between Skaggs and Santiago on which one I think will be the better starter. They are very similar pitchers, with very similar pros and cons. Skaggs is taller by 4-5 inches and has a more downhill delivery, but Santiago has more speed to his fastball, and more bite to some of his offspead stuff. I think the Angels will finally see the benefits of some of those huge contracts and have a pretty good season. With their lineup I expect them to jump out to some early leads, which should help get these young arms get comfortable, and get quality starts. There is always a place for a young lefty with some stuff on the mound.
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