BOLD Recap: NFL Draft 2014

So it's time to own up to how good, bad, and mostly ugly my bold predictions were for the NFL Draft. I did actually get a couple right, and a couple I am pretty proud. Most of them were not so close, or way off the make. Which is pretty much what I expected. I mean how much fun would it be if I said Clowney will go #1, or Teddy Bridgewater will slip in the draft, or Johnny Manziel will be drinking backstage. These are all obvious things we all thought were likely to happen. I did think this was a good chance to show that even though I missed pretty hard on some of my predictions, it's not like the experts are exactly perfect. So while I am trying to be humble and admit my mistakes, I am going to take this perfect opportunity to include some of the worst predictions ever made by draft experts Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock. Please enjoy, and feel free to comment.

And the predicitons were....

JADEVEON CLOWNEY, KHALIL MACK, AND SAMMY WATKINS WILL BE THE TOP 3

PICKS IN SOME ORDER

So, first prediction, first bust. Clowney going first overall was pretty much a given, the question was anyone going to pay the price to move up to #1? The Texans decided to stay put and take Clowney. I really thought the Rams would take Watkins with the second pick or trade it to someone who would. The Lions and Bills were very high on Watkins, but the Rams didn't want to slide down to #9/#10. Jeff Fisher had never taken an OT in the first round, and this was a freebie pick. Why not go crazy and take the playmaker in Watkins? They played it safe and took Greg Robinson, a smart pick, the right pick, but wouldn't have been bold to predict that. I was also very confident that Khalil Mack was going to be taken with the third pick, either by Jacksonville or a trade up from Atlanta or Detroit. The Jags shocked pretty much everyone when they took Blake Bortles at #3. Not because it was a bad pick, but because there was no signs they would make that pick. I thought Bortles was the best QB in this draft, and if the Jags think he is their guy, more power to them. This isn't anything like the Blaine Gabbert pick, and the team with the ugliest helmets I have ever seen actually had a pretty good draft, including selecting two WR weapons in the second round.

Mel Kiper after the Raiders officially selected JaMarcus Russell

“JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that Raider nation. That fanbase, that football team, on the practice field, in that locker room.”


THE LIONS WILL TRADE SUH TO GET INTO THE TOP 5, KEEP THEIR #10 PICK, AND SELECT AARON DONALD TO REPLACE HIM.
Not much to say here, I heard a crazy little rumor and thought it was an awesome idea. It's clear now that even with Suh, the Lions would had to have given up the #10 selection, and possibly more to move up in the draft. I saw the Rams as a likely destination, because I thought St Louis would want to add a DT to an already impressive line, Detroit wanted to be in the top 3, and the Rams wanted to trade. Seeing the price the Bills paid, I think they made the right move staying put. Experts kept referring to the elite 7 players in this draft, and I think Aaron Donald should have been a part of that conversation. I think he is going to be better than Suh, and without all the baggage, and apparently the Rams agreed. Ironically, the Rams ended up taking Donald with their own pick at #13. Without moving Suh, and after drafting Fairley, I think Lions fans would have freaked out more than they did about the Ebron pick had Detroit taken Donald. Which I don't think either would have been a bad move. Speaking of which, the Ebron pick is solid. He is a former basketball player who plays TE, like Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, and Jimmy Graham. Not saying he is going to be those guys, but he's going to be good. 

Mike Mayock on who he would take between Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman in 2009

"I think the safest pick is Sanchez. Sanchez has a very good arm. I would compare his arm to Matt Ryan. And he’s got the best accuracy and footwork amongst the three. And I think if I had to pull the trigger in the top 10 pick with a quarterback I would take Sanchez because I would feel like his floor is higher than the other guys." 

TEXAS A&M WILL HAVE THREE TOP 8 PICKS
I really wish I would have trusted my gut on this one. Even though I didn't think they should, I really thought Cleveland was going to pull the trigger on Manziel at #4. If they didn't, I thought Minnesota might at #8, or the Browns would even trade back up to get him before the Vikings could. In fact, even though I had seen that Cleveland had it's eyes on Gilbert after they first traded back to #9, when they swapped places I thought maybe they would still take him. You knew Jake Matthews could go as high as #2 to St. Louis, but there was no way he was sliding past Atlanta at #6. Mike Evans was going to go as high as #4 to the Browns if Watkins was already gone, or the Raiders at #5, but there was no way he was sliding past #7 to the Buccaneers. So really, the only thing I needed to happen for this prediction to come true was for the Browns to jump on Manziel, and they did, but they were able to wait until pick #22 when apparently Cleveland decided to take him because Johhny Football shot them a text practically begging them to take him. Between that and the homeless man story, you have to worry about the Browns thought process in this draft. I will basically find a way to criticize in almost every piece of this post. In fact, I may just write an entire entry about it, because it drives me that insane. Regardless, I was wrong and should have known better. Go with the gut.

Todd McShay on Jacksonville selecting Blaine Gabbert in 2012

"I love this pick. The Jaguars get the best quarterback in this draft with the 10th pick. You can argue Cam Newton's upside, but Gabbert has the skill set, and intangibles, with his football intelligence to be a franchise quarterback for years to come."

DEREK CARR WILL BE THE SECOND QUARTERBACK SELECTED, IF NOT THE FIRST
Ok, in my defense the Raiders were high on Derek Carr. Back in the day, there is no way they aren't taking him at #5. Who is this team making the smart pick taking Khalil Mack? Seriously though, there were even reports that if Mack was off the board there is a good chance Carr goes at #5. Oakland was able to get Carr in the second round, and put together a pretty impressive draft. I can't believe I just said that, but bravo Raiders. I also thought there was a chance the Vikings would jump on him at #8, but given the Manziel & Bridgewater slides, it made sense to wait and trade back in, just like Cleveland and Minnesota did. I still believe Carr is the second best QB in this class behind Bortles, and I think he fits perfect in Oakland. He gets to stay in Cali, and the Raiders are actually starting to look like a legit franchise again. I still have no idea why two cold weather teams chose two small quarterbacks, and passed on someone like Carr who would have been a far better fit. The draft board fell the way it did, but I think a lot of people are going to look back on this QB class and realize they ranked Derek far too low, because of his brother David.

Mel Kiper on the Texans selecting David Carr with their first ever pick

"Carr now becomes the cornerstone of the Texans' franchise. He is a franchise-caliber quarterback with accuracy and velocity reminiscent of another No. 1 overall pick, Troy Aikman. Look what Aikman meant to Dallas. Carr is a major building block; with the right supporting cast, the rest could be history."

THERE WILL BE THREE TRADES IN THE TOP 10

Thanks to Cleveland there was two trades, but we didn't get to three. The top three picks were up for sale, and I thought at least one of the Texans, Rams, or Jags would move back. When they didn't and Jacksonville took Bortles, the draft was completely changed. The Browns made the first trade swapping with the Bills for #9 and a first round pick next year. A good value trade, yes, but the Browns made a similar move like this a few years back with the Falcons, trading away the right to take Julio Jones. How do you pass on Sammy Watkins when you knew Josh Gordon was going to be suspended, and you needed a WR even if Gordon was going to play? A terrible move if you ask me, but I guess we won't know until we see what next year's first round pick turns out to be. The Raiders were a trade candidate at #5 previous to the draft starting, but with Mack on the board there was no way they were moving. The Falcons couldn't get Clowney, but had no problem taking Jake Matthews. The Buccaneers weren't going anywhere as they addressed a need and got one of my favorite players in Mike Evans. Then came the #8 pick, where the Manziel watch went to code red. The Vikings had a need for a QB and Jon Gruden once again stated how much he loved Johnny Football, and god was that getting old. Then, our second trade, as the Browns swapped places with the Vikings, which of course had to mean they were going to take Manziel. Even though, it was reported at the time of the first trade, Cleveland was looking for a corner. The pick was Justin Gilbert, and the Vikings took Anthony Barr. The Lions were our last chance in the top 10 for trade #3, and may have been looking for trade partners, but they stayed put and took Eric Ebron. So, again, I know we can't judge the Browns trades for a few years, but just on paper I have to think they would have been better just staying put. The Browns could have selected Sammy Watkins at #4, Bradley Roby at #26, and Derek Carr at #35. Instead they end with Justin Gilbert, Johhny Manziel, and Joel Bitonio.

Mike Mayock on RG3's ability to stay in the pocket, and not get hurt

"The more tape I put on of this kid, the more fun I have watching him. I was pleasantly surprised by his pocket awareness, his eyes down the field, and his physical toughness is outstanding. He takes a lot of hits and it doesn't bother him." 

AT LEAST 7 WIDE RECEIVERS WILL BE SELECTED IN THE FIRST ROUND
The fact this draft was so deep at wide receiver actually, caused quite a few of them to slide. Teams were less likely to spend a first round pick, when there was so many talented players that could be found in later rounds. Though the Bills and Saints decided to trade up to get the receivers they wanted, a lot of teams decided to wait. Five wide receivers ended up going in the first round, six if you count Ebron, but I still think it should have been more. Obviously, Watkins and Evans went in the top 10. Odell Beckham, Jr. was the next off the board at #12 to the New York Giants. At #20 the previously mentioned Saints selected the fastest man in the draft, Brandin Cooks. Which has to win the award for Best Fit Pick. That guy has a serious chance to be rookie of the year, and is going to be lights out in that offense. Then teams with WR needs like the Chiefs, Browns, Chargers, and Eagles passed before the Panthers took Kelvin Benjamin at #28. Cam Newton needed a big target like Benjamin, and I really liked this pick. Seven wide receivers did go in the second round for a total of twelve in the first two rounds. Marqise Lee (Jaguars), Jordan Matthews (Eagles), Paul Richardson (Seahawks), Davante Adams (Packers), Cody Latimer (Broncos), Allen Robinson (Jaguars), Jarvis Landry (Dolphins) all went on day two, and no one would have had a bad word to say if any of them were drafted in the first round. It's going to be really interesting to look back on this pass catching class in a few years.

Mel Kiper on his prediction WR Mike Williams would be hall of famer

"Williams was one of my worst evaluations ever. His career is not over, but he’s with his third team (Tennessee Titans) in as many seasons. Someone has to light a fire under Williams, who has been a huge underachiever in the NFL. I thought he was the best player in the 2005 draft, but he wouldn’t justify a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft."

NO RB WILL BE TAKEN IN THE FIRST ROUND, 8 WILL GO IN ROUNDS 2 & 3
Boom! After a few misses we finally have a hit. Saying no running back would go in the first round was far from bold, but I am pretty stoked I got the number of backs taken on day two right on the nose. Bishop Sankey was the first back off the board at #54 to the Titans, meaning none were taken in the top 50 for the first time ever. This started a mini run as the Bengals took Jeremy Hill with the next pick, to be the thunder to the Gio Bernard lighting. Followed by Carlos Hyde going to the Niners at #56. Charles Sim (Buccaneers), Tre Mason (Rams), Terrance West (Browns), Jerick McKinnon (Vikings), Dri Archer (Steelers) finished of the round and just barely snuck 8 into the first 3 rounds.  I get the devalue of the first round pick being taken on a RB with the new CBA, but why teams don't think having a running game is important when we continue to see teams with good running games do well in the playoffs, make it to the Super Bowl, and more importantly win the Super Bowl is beyond me. I liked a lot of these picks specifically Carlos Hyde to the 49ers adding to an already impressive RBC, and Tre Mason to the Rams to be paired with Zac Stacy. I also really liked most of the 4th round picks that were made, but my favorite is Lache Seastrunk joining fellow sixth rounder Alfred Morris with the Redskins. If they get this guy enough snaps, he's going to make some plays.

Mel Kiper ripping the Colts for taking Marshall Faulk

“That’s why the Colts are picking second every year in the draft, not battling for the Super Bowl. You have Shuler and Dilfer on the board, you can't pass on a franchise quarterback.”

KIRK COUSINS AND/OR RYAN MALLET WILL BE TRADED BEFORE/DURING THE DRAFT
This is one I missed on, and I'm very surprised. This QB class was deep with QB's in the sense there were a lot of guys you could get late in the draft who had a lot of starting experience in college. There wasn't exactly a ton of guys that you would call franchise quarterbacks. With how deep this draft was in terms of quality talent at other positions on the field, I felt most teams would address other needs and take a flyer in later rounds, which at that point wouldn't you rather have a Cousins or Mallet? I think Kirk Cousins is a born leader and deserves a starting job in this league. It's a real shame he is stuck behind RGIII in Washington, and if it wasn't for the loot they gave up to get Griffin I think may have a legit shot to be their starter. Ryan Mallet is a prototype NFL QB, who came into the league with some "character" issues, fair or unfair. He has spent the past few seasons behind Tom Brady, on one of the best ran franchises in sports. He has taken the Aaron Rodgers path through the NFL, learning from one of the best of all time, and studying film on every QB in the league so he can mimic them come practice time. I would have given up a second or third round pick for either one of these before drafting any of the QB's in this class. I like Bortles a lot, and Carr even more, but at this point if I'm a team that wants to win now, there is no way I wouldn't target these guys. Which makes the fact that the Houston Texans didn't go after one of them even more shocking to me. Yes they have guys who have started games in Keenum and Yates on their team, but they have to know they aren't the guy. And yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a pretty good starter in this league, but is he really the bridge to Tom Savage? O'Brien coached Mallet briefly for a season in New England, and on paper Mallet is exactly what he wants in a QB. Mallet is Tom Savage with SEC big game experience and has three years of NFL team experience, all while learning the game from Tom Brady. I mean duh? And I will argue to anyone that will listen that Browns were idiots for taking Manziel, when Cousins was likely available to them. Give up the early second round pick you used on an OT for Cousins? Or heck even the #26(eventually #22) you used to take Manziel? Washington would have loved to get back in the first round and you probably could have gotten more than just Cousins in return for that pick. Like I said earlier, hypothetically, Cleveland could have selected Sammy Watkins and then a corner like Roby, and traded that second rounder for Cousins. That's a huge win in my books. I missed on this one, and it kind of upsets me, because it makes way too much sense for the teams who should have been involved.

Todd McShay on the Jets picking defensive ROY Sheldon Richardson

"The Sheldon Richardson pick is a real head-scratcher. It's a complete non-scheme fit & Jets have so many other needs"

THE BEARS, GIANTS, COWBOYS, RAMS, STEELERS,  AND BENGALS WILL ALL SELECT A QB OVER DRAFT WEEKEND
My point in this prediciton, was all of the teams essentially have an established QB, or at least one they have given every chance to be their guy. Whether it was a high draft pick like the Bengals and Rams, or long term contracts like the Bears and Cowboys, or staples who may be losing it like the Giants and Steelers, I felt all of these teams have a guy, but may have taken someone to be the new guy. The only team that truly did that was the Cincinnati Bengals. I am still fairly high on AJ McCarron, and I am kind of shocked by the character comments that are coming out regarding in his interview process. The Bengals definintely took him to challenge or push Andy Dalton, and he has a good shot of taking that job late in the season, or going into next. I can't believe someone talked some sanity into Jerry Jones on passing on Johnny Manziel, althought picking Martin in the first with all the holes on defense didn't make much sense either? It became clear they didn't want to create a PR nightmare around Tony Romo, and with his contract he isn't going anywhere soon, so they didn't take one. Same with the Giants and Steelers, but to be fair they do have young guys on their roster already, that could start to push Manning and Roethlisberger in Ryan Nassib and Landry Jones, respectively. The Bears and Rams each took QB's late, but neither of which do I think are there to push their starters. Chicago selected David Fales to be a backup, and St. Louis took Garrett Gilbert to maybe be third string, but I doubt he will even make the team.

Mel Kiper on Jimmy Clausen after the Panthers took him in round two of the 2010 draft

“I had him as the fourth-best player,” Kiper said in a post-draft conference call, after Clausen plummeted into Round 2. “That’s my rating. That’s my opinion, and I’ll stand by it. We’ll see what happens three years from now.”

LOGAN THOMAS WILL BE DRAFTED BY A TEAM GIVING HIM AN OPPORTUNITY TO START
So, I was in the minority of people who were high on Logan Thomas going into the draft, and I'm sure I still am. I did believe that there would be a team with a QB need, or impending need, who would take Thomas and he would fall into a better situation than all of the late round QB's. I think it's fair to say I was at least right about that. Other than maybe McCarron(Bengals) or Mettenberger(Titans), none of the the quarterbacks outside the top 4 has better shot to earn a starting job sooner, or be a possible long term solution for their team, than Logan Thomas. The Arizona Cardinals passed on Manziel, Bridgewater, and Carr in the first round, and waited until round 4 to take a QB when they selected Thomas. What's more telling is they took him while McCarron, Mettenberger, Murray, and Savage were still on the board. Think about it, all four of those guys were taken with a legit chance to start in the near future, for pretty good teams, and the Cardinals took Logan Thomas before them. Head coach Bruce Arians already has a relationship with Thomas, and in a division full of bruising defenses has to like the size Thomas brings. I know his numbers aren't great coming out of Va Tech, but there once was a time when the NFL didn't care what stats you had in college. In fact, the big number guys usually fell or weren't even drafted, and the size guys were the ones who made it. It was understood they weren't built for the college game, but they were perfect for the pros. He has a lot of work to do, but I wouldn't be shocked if Logan Thomas starts before all of the middle tier guys, or even more three years from now is the only one starting out of that group. I think there is a good chance this QB class with be judged by Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, and Thomas with the rest of the guys playing backup, arena league, or working for ESPN.

Mel Kiper on the best QB in the 2011 class

'If you're asking me who is going to be the best quarterback in this class, years from now when we look back on it, it's not Cam Newton. It's not Gabbert, or Locker, or Ponder. I think you have to go to Kansas City, and it's going to be Ricky Stanzi."