NFL Mock Draft 2014 Revisited
So my commitment to this blog didn't last as long as I had wanted. It's time to start it up again, and what better time than NFL Draft time? I am going to be posting my mock draft for this year's soon, but I wanted to revisit my mock from last year to see how some of my predictions, observations, snark comments and thoughts played out for the rookies in their first season.
I'm going to also include who I think the team should have drafted, my re-picks. Some of that is going to be based on information we know now, and some of it is just going to be what I think would have made more sense. Now I am not going to get crazy and say OBJ should have been the first WR taken. People thought the Giants reached on him at #12, so it would have been insane for him to be taken #2 overall. I'm saying who I think the team should have taken, so the selection will be based on who was available at that pick, not based on my re-picks. So a few guys will show up more than once. Get ready for some of Khalil Mack and Mike Evans love!
Prediction: DE Jadeveon Clowney, USC (other one)
Actual Pick: DE Jadeveon Clowney, USC
Re-Pick: LB Khalil Mack, BUF
So even though there was conversation leading up to the draft that Clowney may not have been the first pick, there was no shock when the Texans took him #1 overall. I had concerns if he would fit into the 3-4, and we still don't really know the answer. His work ethic and injury was a concern, a concern that came to fruition. That being said, you couldn't pass on him. Pairing with JJ Watt would be, and will be insane. The biggest need for Houston was QB, and taking Clowney first still left an opportunity to jump up and take Teddy Bridgewater at the back end of the draft, but they didn't do that. They had a realistic opportunity to take Clowney and Bridgewater, who was once thought to be the #1 pick, before a terrible pro-day and some other nonsense. What a haul that would have been. They didn't take a QB until Tom Savage in the 4th round. A big mistake if you ask me. I have to assume Bill O'Brien sees something with Savage, who they knew they could get later, which is why they passed on early QB's. So I still go defense with this first pick, but I go with the better fit and quite possibly the better player in Khalil Mack. A thought I had before the draft last year.
"He has no red flags, and may just may, end up being better than Jadeveon Clowney."
Prediction: OT Jake Matthews, TAMU
Actual Pick: OT Greg Robinson, Auburn
Re-Pick: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson
My argument last year is the same now, this was a freebie pick. Yes, they needed to shore up the offensive line, which they could have easily done with their second first round pick. Which don't get me wrong, I loved the Aaron Donald pick. Robinson was an OK player, and he may turn out to be a solid veteran, but the Rams now have a new QB, still need line help, and a #1 WR. Watkins had some injuries last year, but he showed some real signs of stardom when he was on the field. He was the clear cut #1 last year, so like I said earlier I am not going to say Beckham should have been the pick. The Rams should have used this pick they essentially stole from Washington to get Watkins.
"If the Rams do somehow stay at #2, I'd like to see them take Sammy Watkins. They have drafted quite a few WR's as of late, but again this pick is basically a freebie. Sammy Watkins...for free."
Prediction: LB Khalil Mack, BUF
Actual Pick: QB Blake Bortles, UCF
Re-Pick: LB Khalil Mack, BUF
The first shocker of the draft last year. The Jaguars did a great job keeping their love for Blake Bortles quiet. I thought Jacksonville had a lot of other needs to fill, but didn't think a QB at #3 was out of the realm of possibilities.
"That being said, if a QB they like is there, and they can't trade down, they may take him."
Jacksonville may have their franchise QB, but they had to throw him out there to learn the hard way after saying he wouldn't see the field in his rookie season. The Jaguars are working in the right direction, away from Gabbert and towards winning. I like Blake Bortles, I think he could be good, but Gus Bradley needs better defense. Mack could have been the anchor of that defense for years to come. Again, Mack would be off the board in my re-draft, but that's not what I'm doing here. I also could put Aaron Donald here, knowing what we know now, but no way that would have happened.
4. Cleveland Browns
Prediction: QB Blake Bortles, UCF
Actual Pick: Trade, BUF selected WR Watkins, Clem
#8 CLE selected CB Justin Gilbert, OSU
#8 CLE selected CB Justin Gilbert, OSU
Re-Pick: WR Mike Evans, TAMU
I'm not going to adjust for trades, because I'm comparing to what I mocked, and that could get crazy. It may be hard to tell, but yes that is the Browns old logo. Old draft, old logo.
I don't hate the trade they made with the Bills. It gained them another first round pick this year, so they will once again have two first rounders. What I hate is what they did with those picks. Trading down, and then up again to select Justin Gilbert...really? I have to wonder if Blake Bortles was actually the guy Cleveland wanted, and when Jacksonville took him they went to strategy B, which included taking Manziel. I actually had a crush on the idea of Bortles in Cleveland. I didn't think Cleveland was far off from being good and they showed signs of that last season with Hoyer in the captain's chair. However, there is information I know now, that I didn't know then, that the Browns did know then, that makes this a super obvious pick. How do you not take a WR when you knew Josh Gordon was going to be suspended for the entire season?!?! I was high on Mike Evans last year. It was super obvious to me he was a big reason Manziel was successful at A&M. He has all the features you look for in a wideout, and he is poised to become and elite WR in the NFL, if Tampa finds someone to throw to him. If Cleveland had stayed put and taken Evans (or Watkins who was actually available obviously), and not wasted a pick on Gilbert, who knows how good they could have been. Hoyer would probably still be the QB. Cleveland gets a third shot at the whole two first round picks thing, let's see if my prediction from last year happens again.
"They have the 26th pick in this draft as well from the Trent Richardson trade, so Cleveland could hit a home run this year. Or they could fail like the last time they had two picks in the first round by taking Richardson and Brandon Weeden. Both are no longer with the team."
5. Oakland Raiders
Prediction: WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson
Actual Pick: LB Khalil Mack, BUF
Re-Pick: LB Khalil Mack, BUF
Watkins was gone in the real draft, and Mike Evans was still available. That being said the Raiders hit an absolute home run by taking Khalil Mack at #5. Making Mack the player I think should have been chosen for 3 of the first 5 teams. I didn't think Mack would slip and the Raiders made the right decision taking him. They then hit another home run taking Derek Carr in the second round. I actually said I could see the Raiders taking Carr at #5 and if Watkins, Mack and Clowney were all off the board they may have. They played the draft perfectly. I know, all this praise for the Raiders is making me sick. Seriously though, Oakland LA San Antonio is setting up to be a competitive team. They got the QB of their offense and defense last year. They didn't get the #1 receiver they covet, but this year at #4 I think they will. (see future mock draft)
6. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: TE Eric Ebron, UNC(FAIL)
Actual Pick: OT Jake Matthews, TAMU
Re-Pick: LB Anthony Barr, UCLA
I spelled out a lot of my thinking on this pick in my mock draft last year. Atlanta had a need for pass rusher, O-line, and a TE. A top lineman was still on the board, but I didn't think they could make an impact. In the case of Matthews, I was right. He dealt with injuries and really had no presence. I thought Mack and Clowney would be off the board, which they were. Atlanta had a crush on Clowney, and he did say he would love to play for the Falcons. There was no way Atlanta could afford to trade up, so they didn't. I was high on Ebron, and defended the Lions for taking him. I was very wrong. His drops in college followed him to the pros, and it doesn't look like he is going to be the next great TE I thought he would. Knowing what we know now this pick probably should have been Anthony Barr. The top two edge rushers were gone, so he was the best option. Eric Ebron...wow.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: OT Greg Robinson, Auburn
Actual Pick: WR Mike Evans, TAMU
Re-Pick: WR Mike Evans, TAMU
Looking back at this I have no idea why I didn't predict Evans to Tampa. I think I just really loved the idea of him falling to Detroit. I don't want to get to redundant with my love for Evans, but I think he is going to be an absolute stud in this league. You know how I feel about him, so I'll keep this short. Again, this made the most sense. I even said it back then.
8. Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: QB Derek Carr, Fresno State
Actual Pick: Trade, CLE selected CB Justin Gilbert, OSU
#9 MIN selected LB Anthony Barr, UCLA
Re-Pick: SAME
Now, I still like Carr with this pick, but what Minnesota was able to do was pretty impressive. They were able to get a fifth round pick (David Yankey) to move back one spot and select Anthony Barr. Then, they snuck back into the first round and used that pick to take their QB, Teddy Bridgewater. A move for a few teams, like the previously mentioned Texans, qualifies as coulda and shoulda. Anthony Barr was a solid and safe pick, and Bridgewater looks more like #1 Bridgewater, and less like pro-day Bridgewater. Very well done Minnesota. This was how I thought Minnesota may maneuver in the draft, I just had them taking Carr over Bridgewater.
9. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: S Calvin Pryor, Louisville
Actual Pick: Trade, MIN LB Anthony Barr, UCLA
#4 BUF selected WR Watkins, Clem
Re-Pick: SAME
This where revisiting this gets confusing. It's kind of hard to analyze this pick, which was actually Minnesota taking Barr, but was traded to Cleveland who took Justin Gilbert, and the Bills took Watkins, but I'll give it a try. I think Cleveland should have stayed put, but I think the Bills made the right move. I knew the Bills were a trade up candidate, and put Pryor here because if they stayed put, I had no idea who they would take. I went as far as to say I didn't think they would take him. So why did I predict they would? I have no idea. They gave up a lot, including this years first round pick, but they got their guy. Can't fault them for that. They've added Shady McCoy this offseason, and with Watkins and a solid crop of WR's, the Bills offense could be pretty good. Not great, but with that defense it may not need to be.
10. Detroit Lions
Prediction: WR Mike Evans, TAMU
Actual Pick: TE Eric Ebron, UNC
Re-Pick: WR Odell Beckham, Jr., LSU
I'm going to ignore my prediction, because I knew he would be gone. I went on a rant about how much I loved the idea of Evans in Detroit and that swayed me. I am going to try not to be too harsh, because I realize most of the people reading this are Lions fans, and I actually defended the Ebron pick, for the same reasons I loved the idea of Evans. Detroit needed to add another threat for Stafford. That threat was there for the Lions in Odell Beckam, Jr. Now, do I think OBJ would have had the same first year success in Detroit that he had for the G-Men? No, not possible. Beckham was given the chance to be the #1 receiver for New York and showed some unbelievable ball catching skills on plays I don't know he would have seen in Detroit. However, he would have seen the field as a #2 during some of Calvin's injuries, and when healthy a corp of Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and Beckham would not only be the best in the league, but potentially one of the best ever. I am not a Lions fan, but as a football fan, it bums me out that this didn't happen. I considered putting Aaron Donald here, but the Lions made a solid offer to Suh. They weren't planning on letting him walk. What Miami threw at him is stupid, and Detroit made the right move letting him go.
The last little bit of recap from last year I want to include is my rant about Johnny Manziel;
"I wouldn't draft Johnny Manziel in the top 10, first round, or second round. I wouldn't draft Johnny Manziel. He is without a doubt an exciting and fun to watch college quarterback, but since when has that translated to the NFL? He can't stand in the pocket and make throws. He's not fast enough to run around and get away from defenses in the NFL. His toss up throws, were only amazing after amazing catches made by Mike Evans. As far as his attitude, I am not going to try and pretend I know the kid or even begin to judge him. I just don't think he gets it, and fair or not he has created a side show and I wouldn't want that anywhere near my team. I don't wish bad on anyone, so I hope he proves me wrong, but I just think Manziel is going to be a train wreck."
As much I want to say "ha I told you so!", Manziel has done something that has changed my mind. He is facing his demons, and getting the help he needs. We don't know what all of them are, but we can make conclusions. Regardless, Manziel checked himself into a rehab facility in February and just recently left. The fact it was such a long stay, and so little of it has been made public makes me believe he is taking it serious. This isn't a show for everyone, much like what his teammate Josh Gordon put on. I truly believe Johnny is taking all the right steps to save his career, but more importantly, his life.
Manziel has lived a very different life than me, and it would be really easy for me to judge him, but I find myself sympathizing for him, and in some ways rooting for him. I have judged him, and mocked him, and his actions brought that on. These actions however, deserve praise and support. I honestly hope for the best for Johnny Football, and hope he can turn things around. He'll have a new fan in me if he does.
Feel free to make any comments or suggestions on facebook, or the blog itself. Thank you so much for reading, and all your support when I was writing this more diligently. I am going to try and stick to it this time and I hope you will continue to read. I am working on my mock draft for 2015 and should have it posted soon. Thanks again!
Looking back at this I have no idea why I didn't predict Evans to Tampa. I think I just really loved the idea of him falling to Detroit. I don't want to get to redundant with my love for Evans, but I think he is going to be an absolute stud in this league. You know how I feel about him, so I'll keep this short. Again, this made the most sense. I even said it back then.
"After trading away Mike Williams, it would be hard to imagine the Bucs passing on Mike Evans, or Sammy Watkins if he some how fell to them at #7"
Prediction: QB Derek Carr, Fresno State
Actual Pick: Trade, CLE selected CB Justin Gilbert, OSU
#9 MIN selected LB Anthony Barr, UCLA
Re-Pick: SAME
Now, I still like Carr with this pick, but what Minnesota was able to do was pretty impressive. They were able to get a fifth round pick (David Yankey) to move back one spot and select Anthony Barr. Then, they snuck back into the first round and used that pick to take their QB, Teddy Bridgewater. A move for a few teams, like the previously mentioned Texans, qualifies as coulda and shoulda. Anthony Barr was a solid and safe pick, and Bridgewater looks more like #1 Bridgewater, and less like pro-day Bridgewater. Very well done Minnesota. This was how I thought Minnesota may maneuver in the draft, I just had them taking Carr over Bridgewater.
"Or use this pick on defense, and move back into the first round to get Carr."
Prediction: S Calvin Pryor, Louisville
Actual Pick: Trade, MIN LB Anthony Barr, UCLA
#4 BUF selected WR Watkins, Clem
Re-Pick: SAME
This where revisiting this gets confusing. It's kind of hard to analyze this pick, which was actually Minnesota taking Barr, but was traded to Cleveland who took Justin Gilbert, and the Bills took Watkins, but I'll give it a try. I think Cleveland should have stayed put, but I think the Bills made the right move. I knew the Bills were a trade up candidate, and put Pryor here because if they stayed put, I had no idea who they would take. I went as far as to say I didn't think they would take him. So why did I predict they would? I have no idea. They gave up a lot, including this years first round pick, but they got their guy. Can't fault them for that. They've added Shady McCoy this offseason, and with Watkins and a solid crop of WR's, the Bills offense could be pretty good. Not great, but with that defense it may not need to be.
"I'm not sure what the price would be to jump that high, or if the Bills would pay it, but it sure would be interesting. If they do stay put, I don't expect them to take Pryor." (No idea...)
Prediction: WR Mike Evans, TAMU
Actual Pick: TE Eric Ebron, UNC
Re-Pick: WR Odell Beckham, Jr., LSU
I'm going to ignore my prediction, because I knew he would be gone. I went on a rant about how much I loved the idea of Evans in Detroit and that swayed me. I am going to try not to be too harsh, because I realize most of the people reading this are Lions fans, and I actually defended the Ebron pick, for the same reasons I loved the idea of Evans. Detroit needed to add another threat for Stafford. That threat was there for the Lions in Odell Beckam, Jr. Now, do I think OBJ would have had the same first year success in Detroit that he had for the G-Men? No, not possible. Beckham was given the chance to be the #1 receiver for New York and showed some unbelievable ball catching skills on plays I don't know he would have seen in Detroit. However, he would have seen the field as a #2 during some of Calvin's injuries, and when healthy a corp of Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and Beckham would not only be the best in the league, but potentially one of the best ever. I am not a Lions fan, but as a football fan, it bums me out that this didn't happen. I considered putting Aaron Donald here, but the Lions made a solid offer to Suh. They weren't planning on letting him walk. What Miami threw at him is stupid, and Detroit made the right move letting him go.
"Matt Stafford has the potential to be a great QB, especially with Megatron, but he needs another weapon. The Lions added YAC leader Golden Tate through free agency, but I think drafting Mike Evans would put Detroit over the top and into serious contender territory."
Evans was obviously gone, but the logic stays the same.
The last little bit of recap from last year I want to include is my rant about Johnny Manziel;
"I wouldn't draft Johnny Manziel in the top 10, first round, or second round. I wouldn't draft Johnny Manziel. He is without a doubt an exciting and fun to watch college quarterback, but since when has that translated to the NFL? He can't stand in the pocket and make throws. He's not fast enough to run around and get away from defenses in the NFL. His toss up throws, were only amazing after amazing catches made by Mike Evans. As far as his attitude, I am not going to try and pretend I know the kid or even begin to judge him. I just don't think he gets it, and fair or not he has created a side show and I wouldn't want that anywhere near my team. I don't wish bad on anyone, so I hope he proves me wrong, but I just think Manziel is going to be a train wreck."
As much I want to say "ha I told you so!", Manziel has done something that has changed my mind. He is facing his demons, and getting the help he needs. We don't know what all of them are, but we can make conclusions. Regardless, Manziel checked himself into a rehab facility in February and just recently left. The fact it was such a long stay, and so little of it has been made public makes me believe he is taking it serious. This isn't a show for everyone, much like what his teammate Josh Gordon put on. I truly believe Johnny is taking all the right steps to save his career, but more importantly, his life.
Manziel has lived a very different life than me, and it would be really easy for me to judge him, but I find myself sympathizing for him, and in some ways rooting for him. I have judged him, and mocked him, and his actions brought that on. These actions however, deserve praise and support. I honestly hope for the best for Johnny Football, and hope he can turn things around. He'll have a new fan in me if he does.
Feel free to make any comments or suggestions on facebook, or the blog itself. Thank you so much for reading, and all your support when I was writing this more diligently. I am going to try and stick to it this time and I hope you will continue to read. I am working on my mock draft for 2015 and should have it posted soon. Thanks again!
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